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Read the rest of Do You Read Forex News? (17 words)

Unfortunately, there are no simple answers to these questions. Ask a gold bull or an average Joe and they will say that the gold is going to go up as the economy is tumbling and the paper money is worthless, while the gold has always been a real measure of value. Ask a dollar bull or a gold pessimist and they will say that the commodity has no future as the economy is going to recover soon, that the inflation is nonexistent and the gold is useless as a commodity. But today I’ll try to look at gold from the technical point of view.

The chart below shows the daily chart of the spot gold from August 2009 until now. It includes the head-and-shoulders pattern that has started forming since October 6 and has ended its formation on January 20, 2010. The ”shoulders” are marked with the letter “S” and the head is marked with letter “H”. The neckline is sloped because this “head-and-shoulders” pattern is bullish. The pattern broke out down on January 21. The gold continued to form a sloped resistance line, which now contains three price spikes. The probable target for this pattern breakout lies at the basement of the first shoulder:

The key level on the chart is the pattern breakout target that is located at $1,023/ounce. That lne can be reached during the next 7 weeks even if the gold is going to continue retracing to the resistance slope from time to time.

From the technical point of view this is a perfect pattern breakout, but what does a retracement to ~$1,023 means for gold in a long-term perspective? Is it a bubble burst? Definitely not. Of course, it may serve as a first step in a serious trend change or even may end in a steep drop to some years’ lows, but the pattern itself doesn’t mean a lot in a long-term perspective. I suggest watching closely for what happens next after the pattern is played out and the new technical data becomes available.
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Read the rest of Gold Bubble — Technical View (16 words)

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Read the rest of Symmetrical Triangles on EUR/GBP D1 — February 7th 2010 (18 words)

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Read the rest of Forex Technical Analysis for 02/08—02/12 Week (14 words)

Unemployment rate fell to 9.7 in January from a previous reading of 10.0 one month before.

Nonfarm payrolls were at -20k in January from a previous revised reading of -150k. Forecasts were more optimistic expecting an increase of 15k jobs, but even if actual data didn’t confirm the analyst’s opinion, a significant improvement could be perceived.

Consumer credit was the last USD report this week and improved significantly from the last reading, but still declined $1.7 billion from a previous revised decline of $21.8 billion. Forecasts were expecting grimmer figures, betting on a decline of $9.2 billion.
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Read the rest of Dollar Continues Strong as Unemployment Falls (13 words)

U.S. factory orders advanced 1.0% in December, another increase from the previous revised grow of 0.6% in November. Forecasts expected a rise of 0.7% in new orders.

Initial jobless claims were at 480k during the past week from a previous number of applications of 472k (revised). Forecasts, once again, expected less applications at 461k.

Nonfarm business productivity preliminary numbers for 2009 last quarter were published today showing an increase at a 6.2% annual rate from a previous revised reading of 7.2%. Forecasts expected productivity growth to be at 5.7%.
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Read the rest of Dollar Hits New 2010 Record High (13 words)

ADP employment report showed a decline of 22k workplaces in January, indicating better figures than what forecasts expected, at -31k positions. This report has been showing several consecutive monthly improvements, this time from the revised reading of -61k in December.

ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 50.5 in January from a previous revised reading of 49.8. The actual figures came slightly below forecasts that expected this index to be at 51.1.

U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels from the previous week. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels last week. Both inventories remained at above the upper limit of the average range.

Pending home sales published yesterday increased to 96.6 in December from a previous reading of 95.6 in November, an increase of 1.0% that came beyond forecasts that expected this number to rise just 0.4%.
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Read the rest of EUR/USD Retreats on Positive U.S. Data (13 words)

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Personal income rose 0.4% in December, from a previous advance of 0.5% in November (revised). Personal spending had a less significant rise at 0.2% from a previous revised reading of 0.7%. Forecasts were very near actual figures, expecting income to grow 0.4% as it was confirmed and spending at 0.3%. Core PCE price index rose 0.1% as forecasts expected.

ISM PMI Index rose to 58.4 in january, the sixth consecutive increase from a previous reading of 54.9. Forecasts expected and advance to 55.5 to this index.

Total construction spending frustrated forecasts and declined 1.2% in December from a previous decline of 0.6%. Forecasts expected a decline of just 0.4%.
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Read the rest of EUR/USD Rebounds on Equities Optimism (13 words)

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Read the rest of Forex Technical Analysis for 02/01—02/05 Week (14 words)